Tuam Tshoj Steel Kev Lag Luam hauv 2025: Ib Lub Xyoo Ntawm Kev Sib Tw thiab Kev Ua Haujlwm Zoo hauv Cov Khoom Muag
Xyoo 2025 tau ua pov thawj tias yog lub sijhawm txiav txim siab rau Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam steel, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog rau nws cov khoom tseem ceeb - dov. Tus cwj pwm los ntawm tus nqi tseem ceeb, hloov pauv kev xav tau hauv tsev, thiab muaj zog tab sis nyuaj rau kev xa tawm, kev ua lag luam rau cov khoom lag luam xws li Steel Yeeb Nkab, Cold Rolled Coil (CRC), Galvanized Coil (GI), Galvalume Coil (AZ), thiab Xim Coated Coil (PPGI) tau mus txog thaj chaw nyuaj. Tsab ntawv xov xwm no muab cov ncauj lus kom ntxaws txog kev hloov pauv ntawm tus nqi thiab cov khoom xa tawm rau cov khoom no thoob plaws xyoo 2025 thiab muab kev rau pem hauv ntej- saib xyuas ntawm Tuam Tshoj tus nqi steel qauv rau 2026.
2025 Kev Tshawb Fawb Kev Ua Lag Luam: Nqe Volatility thiab Export Strength
Cov lus piav qhia dav dav rau xyoo 2025 yog ib qho ntawm cov khoom vaj khoom tsev tsis muaj zog, cuam tshuam los ntawm kev muaj zog dua - dua li - kev xav tau kev tsim kho vaj tse thiab kev tsim lag luam, tshwj xeeb hauv cov haujlwm xws li tsheb tshiab, kev tsim nkoj, thiab cov khoom siv hauv tsev. Qhov kev thov no dichotomy tsim ib lub rollercoaster rau cov nqi.
· Tus nqi hloov pauv (FOB Tuam Tshoj Basis, USD / t):
Lub xyoo pib ntawm kev ceev faj txog qhov zoo. Hauv Q1, tus nqi nruab nrab hovered ib ncig ntawm $ 580-600 / t rauHRC(cov khoom siv hauv paus), nrogCRCtrading ntawm kwv yees li $ 650-670 / t.Galvanized Coil (GI) raug nqi ib ncig $690-720/t, Galvalume (AZ) ntawm $710-740/t, thiabXim Coated Coil (PPGI) ntawm $780-820/t.Cov yeeb nkab steeltus nqi sib txawv los ntawm kev qhia tshwj xeeb tab sis feem ntau taug qab HRC nrog tus nqi.
Txawm li cas los xij, Q2 pom kev kho kom zoo. Kev nce cov khoom muag hauv tsev, ua ke nrog softer - dua li - xav tau raws caij nyoog, ua rau muaj kev poob qis. Los ntawm nruab nrab -xyoo, HRC tau poob mus rau ze li $520/t, rub tawm tag nrho cov khoom xa tuaj. CRC poob rau $ 590-610 / t ntau yam, thaum cov khoom coated pom lawv cov nqi qis, nrog GI nyob ib ncig ntawm $ 640-660 / t thiab PPGI ze ntawm $ 730-760 / t.
Kev txhawb nqa rov qab tau pib hauv Q3, uas tau tsav los ntawm kev txiav ntau lawm los ntawm cov mills loj thiab qhov pom tau pom hauv kev txiav txim xa tawm. Tsoom fwv stimulus ntsuas lub hom phiaj ntawm kev txhim kho cov cuab yeej thiab cov neeg siv khoom kuj buoyed kev xav. Cov nqi tsis tu ncua nce mus txog Q4, xaus rau lub xyoo muaj zog dua. Thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis, CRC tau rov qab rau $ 640-660 / t, GI ntawm $ 690-710 / t, AZ ntawm $ 710-730 / t, thiab PPGI ntawm $ 770-800 / t. Hlau Yeeb Nkab, tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm cov phiaj xwm tshwj xeeb thiab kev thov xa tawm, qhia txog kev sib raug zoo, nrog cov nqi nruab nrab ua tiav siab dua li nruab nrab xyoo qis los ntawm $ 80-100 / t.
· Export ntim:
Kev xa tawm yog zaj dab neeg zoo tshaj plaws ntawm 2025. Tuam Tshoj cov hlau xa tawm tau nce mus rau lawv qib siab tshaj plaws nyob rau hauv ze li ntawm kaum xyoo, ua raws li lub siab tseem ceeb rau kev lag luam hauv tsev. Tus nqi tseem ceeb ntawm kev sib tw ntawm Suav steel, qhov tshwm sim ntawm cov khoom siv qis qis thiab cov yuan tsis muaj zog, ua rau nws txaus nyiam heev hauv kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau sab hnub tuaj Asia, Middle East, thiab thaj chaw ntawm Europe thiab Africa.
· Cov khoom tiaj tus coj tus nqi no. Tag nrho kev xa tawm ntawm daim ntawv thiab coil (xws li CRC, GI, AZ, PPGI) tau kwv yees tias muaj ntau tshaj 50 lab metric tons rau xyoo, ib xyoos - ntawm - xyoo nce ntau dua 20%. Tshwj xeeb, cov khoom siv coated (GI, AZ, PPGI) pom qhov tshwj xeeb xav tau vim lawv cov nqi sib tw piv rau cov neeg tsim khoom hauv zos hauv cov teb chaws txawv teb chaws.
· Steel Yeeb Nkab xa tawm kuj tseem muaj zog, txhawb nqa los ntawm kev ua haujlwm thoob ntiaj teb lub zog thiab kev tsim kho vaj tse, txawm tias ntsib ntau dua los tiv thaiv- dumping headwinds hauv qee lub khw.
Qhov kev tso tawm loj no yog ob- ntaj ntaj: nws txhawb cov nqi siv zeb thiab cov nqi tab sis kuj tau caw kom muaj kev sib tw ua lag luam thiab kev tshuaj xyuas los ntawm kev sib tw steel- cov teb chaws tsim khoom.
2026 Nqe Kev Huab Cua: Ib Xyoo Ntawm Kev Sib Haum Xeeb thiab Kev Sib Tw
Saib ua ntej mus rau 2026, Tuam Tshoj steel kev lag luam yuav tsum nkag mus rau theem ntawm kev hloov pauv hloov pauv nrog kev tsis txaus ntseeg me ntsis, cuam tshuam los ntawm cov hauv qab no tseem ceeb:
1. Kev Xav Tau-Supply Rebalancing: Kev thov hauv tsev zoo li yuav nyob ruaj khov tab sis tsis muaj tus tsav tsheb loj. Cov cuab yeej cuab tam tsis tau xav tias yuav rov qab los sai, thaum kev loj hlob hauv vaj tse tuaj yeem loj hlob. Kev tsim khoom lag luam, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog lub zog ntsuab thiab tsheb, yuav nyob twj ywm tus ncej tseem ceeb. Ntawm cov khoom siv, kev lag luam kev cog lus rau "tso zis tswj" yuav yog qhov sib txawv tseem ceeb tshaj plaws. Yog tias kev qhuab ntuas tuav, nws yuav muab cov nqi ruaj khov. Txawm li cas los xij, ib qho kev so tseem ceeb tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev xa khoom ntau dhau.
2. Raw Material Costs: Tus nqi txhawb nqa los ntawm cov hlau ore thiab coking thee tau kwv yees kom tsis muaj zog me ntsis hauv xyoo 2026 vim tias cov khoom siv thoob ntiaj teb txhim kho thiab Suav steel ntau lawm kev loj hlob nruab nrab. Qhov no yuav tshem tawm ib txheej ntawm upside siab los ntawm tiav steel nqi.
3. Export Normalization: Qhov tshwj xeeb tshaj plaws export qib ntawm 2025 yog unsustainable. Kev ua kom muaj kev cuam tshuam kev lag luam, muaj peev xwm tiv thaiv - cov dej num pov tseg, thiab kev rov qab los ntawm kev sib tw los ntawm lwm lub ntiaj teb mills (piv txwv li, Is Nrias teb, CIS) yuav ua rau 10-15% kev cog lus hauv export ntim rau cov khoom tiaj tus. Qhov no yuav yuam kom cov khoom siv ntau dua los nqus hauv tsev, hnyav ntawm tus nqi.
4. Cov txiaj ntsig thiab kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb: Txoj hauv kev ntawm Suav Yuan (CNY) thiab kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb, tshwj xeeb yog hais txog kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev lag luam loj hauv kev lag luam loj, yuav cuam tshuam loj rau cov nqi xa tawm thiab ntim.
Tus nqi kwv yees rau 2026 (Txhua Ib Xyoo, FOB Tuam Tshoj, USD / t):
Raws li cov xwm txheej no, tus nqi nruab nrab txhua xyoo rau 2026 yog kwv yees li 3-8% qis dua qhov nruab nrab 2025. Peb cia siab tias qhov kev lag luam nqaim dua piv rau 2025 lub viav vias.
· HRC Base: Cia siab rau qhov nruab nrab $540-570/t, nrog tsawg dua qhov siab tshaj plaws thiab troughs.
· Txias Rolled Coil(CRC): Kev kwv yees rau nruab nrab $620-650/t. Tus nqi tshaj HRC tuaj yeem ruaj khov.
· Galvanized Coil(GI): Tus nqi nruab nrab kwv yees ntawm $ 670-700 / t.
· Galvalume Coil(AZ): Zoo li qhov nruab nrab ntawm $ 690-720 / t, tswj hwm nws cov nqi qis dua GI.
· Xim Coated Coil (PPGI): Cia siab tias qhov nruab nrab ntawm $ 750-780 / t, nrog rau qhov kev thov tseem muaj zog los ntawm kev tsim kho thiab khoom siv.
· Cov yeeb nkab steel: Cov nqi yuav muaj ntau haiv neeg, tab sis cov qib nruab nrab ntawm cov qib sib txawv tuaj yeem pom $ 30-50 / t txo qis los ntawm qib qis-2025 vim qhov kev xav tau ntawm kev xa tawm ib txwm muaj.
Nyob rau hauv xaus, 2025 yog ib lub xyoo uas Tuam Tshoj tus ca steel sector leveraged ntiaj teb no kev lag luam mus rau hauv lub domestic headwinds, uas ua rau lub siab volatility thiab cov ntaub ntawv xa tawm. Rau 2026, kev ua lag luam tau npaj rau ib theem ntawm kev sib sau ua ke thiab kev sib haum xeeb. Cov nqi yuav tsum tau qis me ntsis ntawm qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo, nrog kev txo qis, vim tias kev xa tawm nce zuj zus thiab kev ua lag luam tsom mus rau kev sib npaug ntawm cov khoom siv hauv tsev nrog kev ruaj khov, tab sis tsis zoo nkauj, xav tau. Cov kev pheej hmoo tseem ceeb ntawm qhov kev kwv yees no yog nruj dua - dua li - qhov kev txiav txim siab ntau lawm hauv Suav teb (kev pheej hmoo siab dua) lossis kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb poob qis uas ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam rau kev xa tawm thiab kev tsim khoom lag luam (kev pheej hmoo poob qis).